4 February 2011 – Well this week I am disappointed. I had a great weekly planned. A parody of Walk Like an Egyptian entitled Riot Like an Egyptian that had all sorts of great connections between the craziness in the Middle East to higher oil prices, a spooked stock market and better mortgage rates, but sadly it did not come to pass. Even the violence that has arisen in the last few days had no effect. So you were mercifully spared my feeble attempts at humor. So what did happen…

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The week started with mild downward movement in mortgage pricing, but this was short lived. Exuberance, rational or otherwise, that we may be turning a corner was enough to push the Dow above 12,000. By the middle of the week, we found out that new claims for unemployment dropped dramatically and that private sector job creation as measured by ADP had improved considerably. This news nudged mortgage rates back up to and above the range of the last few weeks.

All this was a lead up to the big report due out Friday. It is on this day that the government releases their official employment numbers. It is also on this day that you will hear a collective cheer or gasp among mortgage professionals and rate watchers. If these numbers once again disappoint, rates will likely retreat a bit. If they are positive, you can expect a rapid jump into the low 5% range.

My mortgage rate lock advice for my clients is now very succinct and direct. In fact, it can be summed up in a single word - LOCK. Regardless of the time frame, there is just too much risk to roll the dice.