The Chicago 77

27 August 2009 ? The mortgage backed bonds opened down 31 bps this morning at 8:00 a.m. However when the stock market opened up lower (currently down 21.77) which helped the mortgage bonds rally and we are now only down 12bps?an improvement of 19bps. Things have quieted down with trading ahead of this afternoons 5-Year [...]

26 August 2009 ? Bonds opened up 3 bps this morning and had a nice rally yesterday afternoon. This has currently put rates at 4.875% to 5.% on the 30-year fixed and 4.375% to 4.5% on the 15-year fixed ( assuming 60% LTV, $417,000 loan amount, Single Family Home purchase, 740+ credit score). Mortgage-backed bonds [...]

25 August 2009 ? Bonds opened up 3bps, but are currently down 16bps as buyers are a bit cautious with the $42 billion Treasury auction today. Case-Shiller Housing Price Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in June?the 2nd month in a row. Prices rose in 18 of 20 cities used in the survey and [...]

24 August 2009 ? Today the bond market opened up 3 bps and is currently enjoying a rally with bonds up 47 bps. The rally is basically in response to the stock market pulling back from earlier highs. There are no economic reports due today, but the rest of the week will bring: Durable Orders, [...]

21 August 2009 ? Bonds opened up 3 bps today but quickly turned South and are now down 41 bps which is a change down of 44bps. The stock market is rallying on the news of existing home sales being 5.2 million versus the 5.0 million that was expected. Bonds are under a lot of [...]

20 August 2009 ? Bonds are currently up 12 bps but are hitting a ceiling of resistance for the 200 day moving average. There is tracking of the bond market, stock market, etc and typically there are indicators that can give trends. These moving averages, if broken through, would mean lower rates but typically you [...]

19 August 2009 ? The bond market opened today up 9bps and sharply improved. However, bonds quickly retreated as the stock market staged a rally. The Dow is up 79 points, which has pressured the bond market. While bonds are currently up 18 bps, that is a drop of 10 to 16 bps. There is [...]

18 August 2009 ? Today the bond market opened down 6 bps and are currently down 12 bps. Housing starts were lower than expected at 577,000 versus the 599,000 expected. Inflation is not a concern as the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation on a wholesale level, fell .9% versus .3% expected. In the [...]

13 August 2009 ? The bond market is currently up 19 bps today, however volatility looms with the Treasury auction later today. The retail sales numbers came in lower than expected -.1% versus .8%. Also initial jobless claims number soured the stock markets which both reports helped to push bonds higher. The initial jobless claim [...]

12 August 2009 ? Today the bonds opened up 6bps better, which gave us a little hope our rally would be sustained. However, that quickly turned south and bonds are now down 34bps for the day. Stock traders and investors continue to pour money into the Dow and the traders feel that no change in [...]

11 August 2009 ? While last week?s stock market rally proved detrimental to bonds, we are starting to see a slight recovery in them this week. The bond market dropped 189 bps from Monday to Friday last week, which spiked up the interest rates to 5.5% – 5.625% for the 30 year fixed. Most of [...]

6 August 2009 ? Today the bond market opened up slightly around 6bps and are currently up 9bps. We had a slight movement down after the unemployment claims dropped, however dismal retail sales immediately turned the bonds back into the positive territory. We have had six straight weeks of decline in the moving average of [...]

5 August 2009 – Today the bond market opened down 31 bps. On Monday and Tuesday combined the bond market was down a total of 94bps. The bond market then bounced back due to a weaker ISM report (46.4 versus the expected 48). Also more job losses were reported, expectations were for job losses to [...]